From 2002, China becomes the stage wheat export country, in according
to the customs statistics, China adds up import wheat 424 thousand
tons, and export wheat 2.237 million tons in 2003. In 2004, China
wheat supply lack about 20 million tons, so the government plan to
import wheat reach 3 million tons. It's estimate that China become
the net import country again, it will promote the wheat price raise
in the international market, and than bring about the advance of the
China wheat market. In the market environment that the supply lower
than the demand, the effect of the short seller in the stock exchange
market will display gently.
The influence of the international market in China wheat market Because
of the dry weather in Europe and the production reduce in China, the
world wheat production reduces in a big margin. In according to calculate
of the MOA, USA, the world wheat production is 550.5 million tons
in 2003/2004. Otherwise, the stock in the mainly wheat production
countries already reduce for three years, it will stimulate the price
raise in the international market; also promote the price raise in
China.
To sum up, the wheat powder that production in the last November already
consumed after Spring Festival, and also because of the workers come
back to cities, schools opened again, the market of wheat powder tend
to normal, the demand of the wheat raise, but the price of the wheat
still under the pressure of the wheat powder, The price of the wheat
display the seasonal raise if the wheat production is good. Some analyst
said, the price will reduce for a while after the new wheat go on
the market, and than raise continued.
